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TerryP
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 Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 6:10 am Post subject: When QB efficiency numbers can be deceiving... |
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I suspect we'll see a dramatic rise in JPW's numbers next season when it comes to his QB efficiency. This isn't meant to be a damper on his improvement, but a realistic look at why his numbers will improve.
In drills for the first two days of spring ball we've been working a lot on screen formations and schemes. It's almost as if the basics of QB play are being taught again, and that is a good thing. Under Major's instruction last year we saw JPW digress from what he did his sophomore year both in terms of efficiency and fundamentals. Now, it certainly appears it'll be back to the basics. Don't misunderstand this...some of the basic mechanics problems I saw with JPW last season I also noticed his sophomore year. BUT, what I didn't see was those mechanics improving. (yet another reason I feel weighed in on Applewhite's move)
I mention all of this because after watching A LOT of Mac's offense last season I saw a lot of screens, slip screens, sweeps, quick passes in the flats and shot dumps to the RB's. Those type plays are very successful and tend to boost a QB's rating even though he's not throwing a lot of "home run" balls.
One other thing that strikes me about the early reports out of spring camp is it seems like plays are being practiced with the thought in the back of the staff's head that we'll have players like BJ in the rotation next season.
Just a few idle thoughts this morning...
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jdpas29
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| Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 6:22 am Post subject: |
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good to hear.. our screens were getting lousier and riskier looking over the last few years. Shula's teams actually did a better job of screens to the RBs than last years team.
i'm getting stoked. can't wait til A-Day.
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TerryP
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| Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 6:33 am Post subject: |
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| jdpas29 wrote: | good to hear.. our screens were getting lousier and riskier looking over the last few years. Shula's teams actually did a better job of screens to the RBs than last years team.
i'm getting stoked. can't wait til A-Day. |
Which is one of the reasons JPW's numbers were better and there wasn't so many on the bench JPW bandwagon.
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Birdman37
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| Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 2:09 pm Post subject: |
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screens are one thing that i never understood y we didnt do more of last year. not just to the running backs but both DJ & Keith were great screen catching receivers yet i dont recall one screen to either of them last year. i got a feeling we'll see Julio catching a few screens, anytime u can get him the ball and let him run after the catch will be a great thing.
and terry u were talkin bout the QBs doin alot of screens but not having alot of home runs, but those screens can make the defense cheat up and open up possible home runs.
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TerryP
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| Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 3:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Birdman37 wrote: | screens are one thing that i never understood y we didnt do more of last year. not just to the running backs but both DJ & Keith were great screen catching receivers yet i dont recall one screen to either of them last year. i got a feeling we'll see Julio catching a few screens, anytime u can get him the ball and let him run after the catch will be a great thing.
and terry u were talkin bout the QBs doin alot of screens but not having alot of home runs, but those screens can make the defense cheat up and open up possible home runs. |
We did run a few screens, but not as many as I expected our offense to run before the season started. Saban used the "screen game" quite a bit at LSU.
In all honesty, and this is just my opinion, I wouldn't concentrate on using Julio as the receiver in screen situations, but have him running a fly route to take the CB out of the play as much as possible leaving Maze, Hanks, BJ, whoever in a one on one situation vs a LB'er.
Perhaps I wasn't as clear as I should have been with "home run ball." I use that term for a play 20+ yards down the field...that quick strike TD.
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Easportsbama
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| Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 4:51 pm Post subject: |
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The way J.P. floats the ball up at times kinda made me nervous last season. But 9/10 Julio is coming down with it, so maybe J.P. can get away with it a bit more on the "Homerun Ball".
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DustyG
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| Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 6:18 pm Post subject: |
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| I can't say that this makes me unhappy. It isn't like JP has the strongest arm in the world. I would think that the majority of our play calling would involve dink and dunk passes to try to lure the secondary in close and then try to pop a big one down field. I would also expect to see more flare type passes to backs out of the backfield behind a Julio fly route, provided that our backs can catch of course.
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LBS
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| Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 6:49 pm Post subject: |
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A persistent threat of 6 yard gains on screens is a fantastic compliment to having the likes of Julio deep. If they double team Julio deep, we can drive to the red zone all day. If that cover short, Julio one on one will sting them for six. As for what to do once in the red zone... Jump ball to Julio ALL DAY LONG.
Oh, and we could pop a quick belly run up the middle now and then to keep them honest.
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LBS
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| Posted: Wed Mar 19, 2008 6:53 pm Post subject: |
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Terry,
You spoke of JPW in this new flavor, how will the screen scene impact the other's ability to compete against JPW for PT?
From what I recall from their high school tapes, all our guys could be aces.
Also, do you have any idea as to how much running will be asked of the QBs?
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TerryP
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| Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 4:37 am Post subject: |
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| LBS wrote: | Terry,
You spoke of JPW in this new flavor, how will the screen scene impact the other's ability to compete against JPW for PT? |
That's a good question. In terms of the screen routes and the short passes in the flats, in terms of the QB's throwing ability, I'd say it puts GMac closer to JPW than he was under Applewhite's direction. I don't see it changing the spot Nick is in. He's more athletic than Greg, has a strong arm, but one of his problems has been his accuracy. He can get the ball there in a hurry, but not on the numbers as much as the staff would like.
| Quote: |
From what I recall from their high school tapes, all our guys could be aces.
Also, do you have any idea as to how much running will be asked of the QBs? |
I don't see that role changing at all from last year. Saban isn't known for a offensive approach with a running QB as part of the attack. Now, the ability for the QB to run when the receivers are covered is a different story. When pressured, and when we needed JPW to run to get to the first down markers, he's been able to accomplish that to a degree. He's not a bad scrambler, not the most athletic scrambler out of the group (that would be Fanuzzi), but for lack of a better term a "serviceable" scrambler.
I'm still very much of the opinion the battle for the QB position starts this year, but it's a battle for the starting role in '09. If there is one thing JPW does have a clear advantage of it's the ability to read the defenses. And, that in itself has been a struggle for him. That struggle is nothing new...it was the main thing that he and Brodie worked on Brodie's senior year during summer skel drills.
One thing to add to that...
Another thing Mac is bring in with the few adjustments he's making on the offense is more misdirection. That element itself should freeze the defense more than last year if only for a second or two which can only help JP.
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LBS
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| Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 5:31 am Post subject: |
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Thanks for the long and detailed answer to one brother's question.
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Another thing Mac is bring in with the few adjustments he's making on the offense is more misdirection. That element itself should freeze the defense more than last year if only for a second or two which can only help JP. |
I've often thought that more-misdirection was one of the best ways to counter the defensive speed that we will face in the SEC.
I feel better about the QB position than I have in a long time. I hope that JPW does cut loose on runs more often. Barring injury, that could only help. If there is an injury, I think that the shorter game lends itself more toward allowing the other QBs a better chance to keep the ball rolling if they have to step in.
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shipley00
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| Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 5:57 am Post subject: Re: When QB efficiency numbers can be deceiving... |
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| TerryP wrote: |
I mention all of this because after watching A LOT of Mac's offense last season I saw a lot of screens, slip screens, sweeps, quick passes in the flats and shot dumps to the RB's. Those type plays are very successful and tend to boost a QB's rating even though he's not throwing a lot of "home run" balls.
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Much has been said about the home run and the screens, but I'm interested to hear everyone's opinion on this topic. This is one area where we, quite frankly, were horrible at. We had a quick back like TG, but the majority of the time we could not execute the quick short pass in the flat. Most of time we did complete it, the RB had to change his speed, direction, or just stop and jump to catch the pass. With the improvement last season in blocking ability of our WRs, those type of plays could have change games if executed properly. I'll take my chances with TG one on one against the LB.
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TerryP
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| Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 6:28 am Post subject: |
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| LBS wrote: | Thanks for the long and detailed answer to one brother's question.
| Quote: |
Another thing Mac is bring in with the few adjustments he's making on the offense is more misdirection. That element itself should freeze the defense more than last year if only for a second or two which can only help JP. |
I've often thought that more-misdirection was one of the best ways to counter the defensive speed that we will face in the SEC.
I feel better about the QB position than I have in a long time. I hope that JPW does cut loose on runs more often. Barring injury, that could only help. If there is an injury, I think that the shorter game lends itself more toward allowing the other QBs a better chance to keep the ball rolling if they have to step in. |
That's a damn good point. A fine observation!
Just to back that up...consider watching games when you see a back-up enter the game and think about what the play caller always goes with...a few runs, and very short passes just to get him comfortable and into the pace of the game. Except, in this case, it would be one of the staples of our offense.
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TerryP
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| Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 6:35 am Post subject: |
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Just surfing around this morning and I found an interesting breakdown of a USCw game when they played Oregon.
Their passing game completed 79% of their passes when they fell into the category we're talking about. The numbers dropped off considerably when the play was longer than 15 yards. (33%)
Just another example of how the efficiency numbers will be better with a different approach.
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TerryP
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| Posted: Thu Mar 20, 2008 7:32 am Post subject: |
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| shipley00 wrote: | | TerryP wrote: |
I mention all of this because after watching A LOT of Mac's offense last season I saw a lot of screens, slip screens, sweeps, quick passes in the flats and shot dumps to the RB's. Those type plays are very successful and tend to boost a QB's rating even though he's not throwing a lot of "home run" balls.
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Much has been said about the home run and the screens, but I'm interested to hear everyone's opinion on this topic. This is one area where we, quite frankly, were horrible at. We had a quick back like TG, but the majority of the time we could not execute the quick short pass in the flat. Most of time we did complete it, the RB had to change his speed, direction, or just stop and jump to catch the pass. With the improvement last season in blocking ability of our WRs, those type of plays could have change games if executed properly. I'll take my chances with TG one on one against the LB. |
As the off-season continues I'll look at the game again to fulfill the void.
But, first thoughts on this fall on the OL. When we slipped TG, etc., out of the backfield JP was under pressure a little too quickly.
Timing is an essential part of that play being successful. That comes with a lot of reps. Considering last spring and summer a lot of time was spent just learning the offense, this spring and summer will have the players spending more time on improving their communication. A lot of JP's and DJ's success came from working together in the past and that was combined with WR routes don't differ a lot. Experience together paid off there...it should in JP and the RB's as well.
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